Second in betting popularity only to the Super Bowl, the March Madness Tournament is one of the most exciting sports events to ever be created. Bettors from a plethora of other sports, similar to the Super Bowl, actually take a break from their niches to get involved in office and friends pools for the legendary tournament. For the sports betting fan new to March Madness, here are a few tips on how to bet on the tournament.

Sides

During the early rounds of the tournament, the majority of wagers go in the direction of the favorite. Over the last few years, the favorite has won the majority of games at an astounding 56.3 percentage. What’s more, in the last three years, bettors that pick teams ranked in the top four, which are favored by 10 or more points against their opponents, win at an incredible 60 percent.

Throughout the tournament’s history, the number one seed is undefeated against the 16 seed. Yet, one should keep in mind, that betting underdogs at least on the point spread can have its advantages. For instance, in that same three year survey noted above, the number one seed is only seven and four against the spread of 20 or more points when facing a 16 seed.

As well, taking the underdog in a low spread game can be beneficial too. For example, favorites have a losing record when it comes to games with a spread of two and a half points or less.

Totals

In keeping with the three year study from above, we discovered that 103 games have gone over the total while 86 went under. Moreover, in games where the total is listed at fewer than 125, the games have gone over at almost 58 percent of the time.

NFL betting fans have loved using systems such as the Monday Night home underdog since MNF was the only ticket in town to watch games. Essentially as the name suggests, the majority of fans betting on the NFL would take the home team underdog during Monday Night games.

The logic behind taking the home underdog was that the home team would play harder during the Monday night game, because it was such a prestigious honour at the time. Basically in the first 15 years of the NFL, Monday Night football was the prime time game and only ticket around. At half time, fans could receive recaps on the weekend and previous Thursday games. Also during the first 15 years, the home underdog consistently was a winner on Monday Nights.

But in 1985 as many handicappers know, the home underdog success came to a crashing halt. As a result since that time, the MNF home underdog system has gone 68 and 62. Now many fans between the ages of 15 to 30, perceive the MNF home underdog system as a myth to make daddy feel good about the old days.

Although the overall combined record of the home underdog system is nothing to write home about, it is startling to know that the majority of the success accredited to the system was in the late 1980s. In fact over the last decade, the Monday Night Football home underdog system has had an abysmal overall record of 21 and 31.

What this myth of a system tells us if anything are two things, first taking the road team favorite over the last two decades is better than taking the home underdog. Secondly, the game has evolved in such a way, that taking a team simply because they have a good home record is illogical, as road teams appear to be better and better.

A lot of sharp nfl football betting handicappers enjoy employing various strategies when it comes to the NFL. One such betting strategy is the yards per point system, used to calculate the point spread on an upcoming game. Here is one system that has come to make handicappers richer.

The Dudley Method of Yards Per Point:

Created in the mid 1980s, the Dudley method was created by Art Glantz and Leigh Cohn in their book “The Winner’s Guide To Pro Football Betting”. In essence the system operates on the last four games played by each of the teams in the game you are about to bet upon. Here is an example of a game between the Green Bay Packers and St. Louis Rams as well as the four steps of the system.

Example: Green Bay vs. St. Louis – In their last four games the Packers have accumulated 1345 yards while allowing 1352. However in that same time frame they have scored 91 points and given up 78. Conversely the Rams have gained 1291 yards while giving up 1510. The Rams have scored 86 points and given up 111. Here are the four steps to the system:

1. Create an offensive YPP figure for each team:

Green Bay: 1345 / 91 = 14.78

St. Louis: 1291/ 86 = 15.01

2. Create defensive averages for each team, which is the total amount of yards given up divided by four

Green Bay: 1352/ 4 = 338

St. Louis: 1510/ 4 = 377.5

3. Take Each team’s defensive average and divide it by the oppositions YPP figure

Green Bay: 377.5 / 14.78 = 25.54

St. Louis: 338/ 15.01 = 22.52

4. Subtract 1.5 points from the road team and give the home team an additional 1.5 points for the predicted score

Example as Green Bay as home team = Final Score: Green Bay 27.04 – 21.02 St. Louis

Example as St. Louis as home team = Final Score: St. Louis 24.02 – 24.04 Green Bay

Bettors looking to advance from casually betting nfl on your favorite teams, to picking more games should start looking into various wager systems. In the NFL one such betting system that has consistently worked over the last two decades is called the ultimate betting system.

Essentially when you are looking to form your own system, you should gather information from rather successful systems. As we noted above the ultimate NFL betting system, has been around for 20 years and is rather easy to use. Simply look for a team that has scored at least 30 points a game in two straight games while giving up at least 10 points in two straight games. From there you would bet against that team to cover the spread in their next game.

One should keep in mind though that the reason the system has been so successful is because it is not played often. Since 1989 the system has been played 12 times accumulating a record of 11 wins and one loss in that span. Over the last five years, the system has been used four times with a record of three wins and one loss. Here are three examples of the system in use.

1. 2007 Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys – Going into the game, the Dallas Cowboys had won two straight games by 30 or more points in each game and the Bills were a 10 point underdog. Not only did the Bills make the system a winner, they also led for the majority of the game prior to loosing on the last play of the game. Final score 25 – 24 Dallas.

2. 2008 Baltimore Ravens vs. Washington Redskins - This was the exception to the rule for the ultimate NFL betting system, as the Redskins a six point underdog were blown out by the Ravens 24 – 10, making the system a loser as well.

3. 2009 San Francisco 49ers vs. Indianapolis Colts – A year after the system suffered its only loss, it returned to winning form as the 49ers a 13 point underdog, easily covered the spread in a losing effort to the powerhouse Colts 18 – 14.

When getting involved in nfl betting, your ultimate key to success is having a money management system. Here is a look at the ultimate money management system, betting enthusiasts looking to make a profit at the end of the day will accomplish their goal when using this system.

What is the ultimate money management system?

In essence, the UMMS is based on the concept of using only four percent of your bankroll and subtracting point one percent for every additional bet you make. For example if you were to make a single wager a day you would use up all four percent, yet if you made five bets a day you would use three point six percent of your four percent. Further 11 bets would become three percent of the bankroll, as you subtract one percent from four.

For fans using this method for the first time, know that in order for this system to be effective, you will be wagering the same amount on each bet. Most bettors when they run into trouble managing their accounts will bet $50 on one game and $100 on another. But to have an effective day, it is important to use the same amount of money for each wager. It is important as well to keep a calculator handy, in order to determine what your set wager amount will be.

The UMM system is compatible for online sportsbooks but sometimes tricky for in live casinos. Basically, because online sportsbooks want to remain afloat, they are more likely to take a wager at a bizarre number such as $45.25 same as a $50 wager then a bookie is. For a bookie you would look to compensate them for adjusting to your price causing you to spend more. However as we noted above this system is affective as you do not spend a lot of money, but at the same time the profit is quite small because of how little you are spending.

For every simple NFL betting system there is one that twice as effective but twice as time consuming. Today we look at the NFL point differential system, as it is best used when deciding what teams to choose while online betting.

Essentially the PDS incorporates one team in a given matchups opponents up until the week you are about to wager on. Take a six week time span and calculate the total average points for and allowed to find out how well one team’s offense and defense is going into the matchup you are betting on. This system is based around calculating the road team in a given game’s offense and defense. Here is an example using the Houston Texans.

In our feature matchup, the Houston Texans will be facing the Detroit Lions in Detroit. Through the first six weeks of the season, the Texans have scored 104 points while giving up an abysmal 148 points. By dividing the points for and against each by six we get the average number of points scored and given up by the Texans in their first six games. This translates to 17.33 points for and 24.67 against. The point differential system is a four step process and appears as follows:

1. List the road team’s opponents and their per game averages

Week 1: vs. New England 22.33 – 20.5

Week 2: vs. Jacksonville 18.5 – 20.33

Week 3: vs. Cleveland 23 – 17. 83

Week 4: vs. Atlanta 18.83 – 17

Week 5: vs. New Orleans 26 – 18.16

Week 6: vs. Philadelphia 16.33 - 19.17

2. Add up all the totals for points scored and allowed and divide each by six

Points for: 22.33+18.5+23+18.83+26+16.33 = 125.17 / 6 = 20.86

Points Allowed: 20.5+20.33+17.83+17+18.16+19.17 = 110.83 / 6 = 18.47

3. Divide Houston’s points for by the average points allowed by their opponents

Points for / points allowed = 17.33 /1847 = 0. 94

This number tells us that Houston’s offense runs at a 94 percent clip of the league average for offense.

4. Divide Houston’s points allowed by their opponents average points scored

Points allowed / points for = 24.67 / 20.86 = 1.18

If the league average defense operates at one percent, Houston’s defense operating at a 1.18 is 18 percent worse than the average.

Betting enthusiast new to college football should know that it shares a few similarities to the NFL. For instance teams do receive bye weeks same as the professional game. Instead of taking the week off for television scheduling which results in an added week to the season, the college bye week is included in the 13 week schedule. Essentially the week is used for players to recover from injuries and the coaches to plan further for a future opponent.

Over the last decade, fans betting on ncaa football for the road team as the favorite have had little success. In this time frame, these teams have accumulated an abysmal record of 106-152-2 against the spread in the week after a bye. Moreover, college road favorites in the last decade have combined for an abysmal 33 percent winning percentage against the spread. It appears through these statistics that the bye week may be doing more harm than good.

As seen by the poor records for teams after a bye week, it may be wiser for both the teams and the fans betting on them to have the bye week be withdrawn. A couple reasons to consider this aside from the poor records include:

1. Routine Disruption – As much as the bye week is a nice get away for the players and allows the coaches to remodel their game plans, the routines they have preached in the weeks prior are being disrupted. By playing the season in 12 weeks instead of 13, teams that start the season in top form, have a chance at staying that way. As the records above prove, changing a routine for a week appears to be doing more harm than good.

Disadvantage On the Road – Teams who play on the road in the week after their bye have a much more difficult time when favored by 10 or more points as the 33 percent indicator above would suggest. Many teams on the two week vacation (end of game before bye to first game back) tend to look at tougher opponents and if they play teams they should beat on the road in the first week back, they struggle mightily.

Betting on college football is growing by the day and today we look at when and how bettors can wager on the underdogs. One of the original college football betting systems for college underdogs was called “power underdogs” by Gold Sheet’s Mort Olshan. In essence the theory was to bet on good teams when they were looked upon as underdogs by sportsbooks. Here are two situations in which this theory applied:

1. Ranked Teams as Underdogs – The rule of thumb when betting on ranked teams as underdogs is to bet on the teams to win outright. Teams that are ranked tend to have the best football programs in the country. Meaning to say that although they are ranked as underdogs, they have every chance to at the very least cover the point spread.

From 1985 until now, ranked teams as the underdog have put forth an impressive record when point spread betting. In that 25 year span, ranked underdogs have amassed a record of 737-419-18 for a winning percentage of over 60. As well in the last two years the ranked underdogs covering the spread have combined for a record of 43-29-1 for a win percentage just under 60.

2. Home Teams as Underdogs – When ranked teams are viewed as underdogs, it is more common to view them like this when they are on the road. Nevertheless, teams that are ranked and deemed an underdog at home in the last 25 years have put forth a record of 178-81-6 good enough for a win percentage of 68.7.

One interesting note about home team underdogs is the fact that the teams win percentage against the spread drops significantly when they face other ranked teams at home. For instance, since 1985, when home underdogs face fellow ranked teams at home they only have a record of 120-76-6 good enough for a 61.2 win percentage.

When getting involved in baseball betting, keep in mind that the season is the longest in all of professional sports. As a result, teams may show a poorer effort in one game knowing that they have two to three more games in a single series to make up. Sports betting fans involved with revenge systems know that this type of system works in two scenarios short and long term.

1. Short Term Revenge – This form of revenge occurs when a home team drops the first game of the series by three or more runs after leading. Essentially after dropping the first game, the home team is likely to come back the next game with more effort to win back the faith of the fans.

In order for this system to be put into effect, the home team needs to be favored in at least one game in the series that we are betting upon. Basically by wagering you know that the team that lost has the capability of coming back or holds an advantage in some way. The most common advantage in the rebound game is for the previous night’s loser to send one of their better pitchers to the mound to face off against a weaker pitcher from the winning team. Through the team’s motivation and added leverage on the betting line fans using short term revenge should be successful in their wager.

2. Long Term Revenge – In essence we are looking at a team’s long term affect after being swept earlier in the season by an upcoming opponent. In order for this to work, the team we are wagering has to have been swept and then bounced back with strong playing the rest of the season leading up to the return series. We want our team to win at least one game in the series to consider it a bounce back win.

This stipulation is normally included when fans wager on the run line. Look for fans betting the run line to add one and a half points to the team that was previously swept. Wagering in this way can lead to a profit in at least one of the games.

Fans new to online betting beware of various sites that try and get you to buy their system. This should be avoided at all costs, as in the long run buying sports betting system will cost you more money than what you would wager in an actual event. Here are three general rules on how to avoid buying a wagering system.

1. Unrealistic winning percentages – Your first clue to avoiding buying a betting system is when you see a promise to a large winning percentage. Listen, in sports betting similar to every other form of gambling you will lose money. Any system that promises you 100 percent winning percentage is false. Think about it, if a sports betting system claims to have a record of 42 to one odds in favor of winning, ask yourself why they need your money.

2. Double Up factor – One of the goals of each sports betting system is that they claim to be unique which is why you should pay for them. However after shopping around for the best betting system, we have noticed that most of them offer a double up factor. But shouldn’t they all be unique?

Essentially how a double up factor works is not to your benefit. What occurs is, if you lose your first wager, the betting system suggests you double up your next wager to win the second bet and make back the money lost on the first bet. If you lose both bets they suggest tripling up and the cycle continues on until you have lost your money. Further the rare time doubling up does work this does lead to a high payout. However, we strongly advise against doubling up and would rather see you bet the same small amount on each wager individually.

3. Combination system – On many sportsbooks, betting systems are being offered where you combine two or more sports. For instance the popular one currently is the football/ baseball combo system in which the premise is the same as long term baseball revenge in that you use a run line to nominate points for the team you expect to win. Plain and simple, so why pay for it?