AOPR System Giving Players A NCAA Betting Edge
Players that wager on NCAA college football betting are already familiar with the system that the BCS uses to make their rankings, but long before they were using that method that included using the strength of the team’s schedules to determine the standings, a similar type of method was being used. Instead of calling it Strength of Schedule as it is referred to now, players referred to it as the Average Opponent Power Rating, or AOPR. That power rating was used to determine which team was better than the other, as team’s with higher AOPR’s had beaten better competition than those with lower AOPR ratings. This was a useful tool for players because it helps to determine appropriate spreads, and can give them a betting edge.
An example of how the method can be used is as follows. Say that the Indiana Pacers are playing the Toronto Raptors. The Pacers have an AOPR of 85, and on average score 68 while allowing 64. The Raptors have an 82 AOPR, and score 76 compared to allowing 74. The first thing to do is divide the higher AOPR by the lower, to determine how much easier the weaker team’s schedule has been. In this case, the number is 1.037, which means the Pacers have had a 3.7 percent more difficult schedule. Then, players take the total points scored by both teams, and divide it by the league average, adjusting it by taking away or adding the 3.7 percent to remove strength of opponent factor. Then, players take that number, and multiply it by points allowed. In this case, the Pacers number would be 73, while the Raptors’ would be 66, meaning the predicted final score would be 73-77 Indiana. Although it is not the simplest concept, it could give sports betting enthusiasts the edge they need.
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