Archive for the ‘NCAA Football’ Category

College Football Bye Week Systems

lsuBetting enthusiast new to college football should know that it shares a few similarities to the NFL. For instance teams do receive bye weeks same as the professional game. Instead of taking the week off for television scheduling which results in an added week to the season, the college bye week is included in the 13 week schedule. Essentially the week is used for players to recover from injuries and the coaches to plan further for a future opponent.

Over the last decade, fans betting on ncaa football for the road team as the favorite have had little success. In this time frame, these teams have accumulated an abysmal record of 106-152-2 against the spread in the week after a bye. Moreover, college road favorites in the last decade have combined for an abysmal 33 percent winning percentage against the spread. It appears through these statistics that the bye week may be doing more harm than good.

As seen by the poor records for teams after a bye week, it may be wiser for both the teams and the fans betting on them to have the bye week be withdrawn. A couple reasons to consider this aside from the poor records include:

1. Routine Disruption – As much as the bye week is a nice get away for the players and allows the coaches to remodel their game plans, the routines they have preached in the weeks prior are being disrupted. By playing the season in 12 weeks instead of 13, teams that start the season in top form, have a chance at staying that way. As the records above prove, changing a routine for a week appears to be doing more harm than good.

Disadvantage On the Road – Teams who play on the road in the week after their bye have a much more difficult time when favored by 10 or more points as the 33 percent indicator above would suggest. Many teams on the two week vacation (end of game before bye to first game back) tend to look at tougher opponents and if they play teams they should beat on the road in the first week back, they struggle mightily.

Betting College Football Underdogs

college-footballBetting on college football is growing by the day and today we look at when and how bettors can wager on the underdogs. One of the original college football betting systems for college underdogs was called “power underdogs” by Gold Sheet’s Mort Olshan. In essence the theory was to bet on good teams when they were looked upon as underdogs by sportsbooks. Here are two situations in which this theory applied:

1. Ranked Teams as Underdogs – The rule of thumb when betting on ranked teams as underdogs is to bet on the teams to win outright. Teams that are ranked tend to have the best football programs in the country. Meaning to say that although they are ranked as underdogs, they have every chance to at the very least cover the point spread.

From 1985 until now, ranked teams as the underdog have put forth an impressive record when point spread betting. In that 25 year span, ranked underdogs have amassed a record of 737-419-18 for a winning percentage of over 60. As well in the last two years the ranked underdogs covering the spread have combined for a record of 43-29-1 for a win percentage just under 60.

2. Home Teams as Underdogs – When ranked teams are viewed as underdogs, it is more common to view them like this when they are on the road. Nevertheless, teams that are ranked and deemed an underdog at home in the last 25 years have put forth a record of 178-81-6 good enough for a win percentage of 68.7.

One interesting note about home team underdogs is the fact that the teams win percentage against the spread drops significantly when they face other ranked teams at home. For instance, since 1985, when home underdogs face fellow ranked teams at home they only have a record of 120-76-6 good enough for a 61.2 win percentage.