NFL Point Differential System
For every simple NFL betting system there is one that twice as effective but twice as time consuming. Today we look at the NFL point differential system, as it is best used when deciding what teams to choose while online betting.
Essentially the PDS incorporates one team in a given matchups opponents up until the week you are about to wager on. Take a six week time span and calculate the total average points for and allowed to find out how well one team’s offense and defense is going into the matchup you are betting on. This system is based around calculating the road team in a given game’s offense and defense. Here is an example using the Houston Texans.
In our feature matchup, the Houston Texans will be facing the Detroit Lions in Detroit. Through the first six weeks of the season, the Texans have scored 104 points while giving up an abysmal 148 points. By dividing the points for and against each by six we get the average number of points scored and given up by the Texans in their first six games. This translates to 17.33 points for and 24.67 against. The point differential system is a four step process and appears as follows:
1. List the road team’s opponents and their per game averages
Week 1: vs. New England 22.33 – 20.5
Week 2: vs. Jacksonville 18.5 – 20.33
Week 3: vs. Cleveland 23 – 17. 83
Week 4: vs. Atlanta 18.83 – 17
Week 5: vs. New Orleans 26 – 18.16
Week 6: vs. Philadelphia 16.33 - 19.17
2. Add up all the totals for points scored and allowed and divide each by six
Points for: 22.33+18.5+23+18.83+26+16.33 = 125.17 / 6 = 20.86
Points Allowed: 20.5+20.33+17.83+17+18.16+19.17 = 110.83 / 6 = 18.47
3. Divide Houston’s points for by the average points allowed by their opponents
Points for / points allowed = 17.33 /1847 = 0. 94
This number tells us that Houston’s offense runs at a 94 percent clip of the league average for offense.
4. Divide Houston’s points allowed by their opponents average points scored
Points allowed / points for = 24.67 / 20.86 = 1.18
If the league average defense operates at one percent, Houston’s defense operating at a 1.18 is 18 percent worse than the average.
